CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property
information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today
released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI
Forecast™ for March 2019, which shows home prices rose both
year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by
3.7% year over year from March 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices
increased by 1% in March 2019. (February
2019 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are
standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly
released public data to provide updated results each month.)
This press release features multimedia. View the full release here:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190507005220/en/
CoreLogic National Home Price Change; March 2019. (Graphic: Business Wire)
Looking ahead, after some initial moderation in early 2019, the
CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates home prices will begin to pick up and
increase by 4.8% on a year-over-year basis from March 2019 to March
2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to decrease
by 0.3% from March 2019 to April 2019. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a
projection of home prices calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other
economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by
weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households
for each state.
“The U.S. housing market continues to cool, primarily due to some of our
priciest markets moving into frigid waters,” said Dr. Ralph McLaughlin,
deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. “But the broader market looks more
temperate as supply and demand come into balance. With mortgage rates
flat and inventory picking up, we expect more buyers to take advantage
of easing housing market headwinds.”
According to the CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI), an
analysis of housing values in the country’s 100 largest metropolitan
areas based on housing stock, 35% of metropolitan areas have an
overvalued housing market as of March 2019. The MCI analysis categorizes
home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or
overvalued, by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable
levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals (such as
disposable income). Additionally, as of March 2019, 26% of the top 100
metropolitan areas were undervalued, and 39% were at value.
When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 40% were
overvalued, 16% were undervalued and 44% were at value in March 2019.
The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which
home prices are at least 10% above the long-term, sustainable level. An
undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10%
below the sustainable level.
During the first quarter of 2019, CoreLogic together with RTi Research
of Norwalk, Connecticut, conducted an extensive survey measuring
consumer-housing sentiment in high-priced markets. The survey
respondents indicated high home prices have an impact on high rental
prices as well. Nearly 76% of renters and buyers in high-priced markets
agreed housing prices in these markets appeared to be driving rental
rates up.
“The cost of either buying or renting in expensive markets puts a
significant strain on most consumers,” said Frank Martell, president and
CEO of CoreLogic. “Nearly half of survey respondents – 44% of renters –
cited the cost to rent in high-priced housing markets as the number one
barrier to entry into homeownership. This is potentially forcing renters
to wait longer to have the necessary down payment in these communities.”
The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring April 2019 data, will be
issued on Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on
industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate
databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales
transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the
first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic
HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by
market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing
the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for
single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The
indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to
signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for
multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type,
price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and
distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national
level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are
based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines
the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per
capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum,
mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the
unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI
Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family
Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined
Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI
Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital
Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of
home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at
state, Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) and ZIP Code levels. The
forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with
a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About the CoreLogic Consumer Housing Sentiment Study
In the first quarter of 2019, 1,002 renters and homeowners were surveyed
by CoreLogic together with RTi Research. This study is a quarterly pulse
of U.S. housing market dynamics. Each quarter, the research focuses on a
different issue related to current housing topics. This first quarterly
study concentrated on consumer sentiment within high-priced markets. The
survey has a sampling error of +/- 3.1% at the total respondent level
with a 95% confidence level.
About RTi Research
RTi Research is an innovative, global market research and brand strategy
consultancy headquartered in Norwalk, CT. Founded in 1979, RTi has been
consistently recognized by the American Marketing Association as one of
the top 50 U.S. insights companies. The company serves a broad base of
leading firms in Financial Services, Consumer Goods, and Pharmaceuticals
as well as partnering with leading academic centers of excellence.
Source: CoreLogic
The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the
primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be
resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including
publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company
without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used
for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as
coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with
broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first
reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts,
graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on
screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the
data, contact Alyson Austin at newsmedia@corelogic.com
or Allyse Sanchez at corelogic@ink-co.com.
Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission
of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are
compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary
analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.
About CoreLogic
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), the leading provider of property insights and
solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and thriving communities.
Through its enhanced property data solutions, services and technologies,
CoreLogic enables realtors, financial institutions, insurance carriers,
government agencies and other housing market participants to help
millions of people find, acquire and protect their homes. For more
information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI
Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All
other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190507005220/en/